Who Is Winning Wisconsin Election? Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde Update

Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde are locked in a tight race to win the Wisconsin Senate race.

Senator Tammy Baldwin in battleground state Wisconsin.

Wisconsin was expected to be one of the closest battlegrounds in both the presidential and Senate races. Polls for months showed Baldwin, first elected in 2012, maintaining a modest lead over Hovde but the contest tightened in the final weeks of the race.

With 84 percent of the vote counted, Hovde was leading Baldwin with 50 percent of the vote, according to projections from NBC News.

In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are also in a close race that was yet to be called after midnight on Wednesday.

Which Presidential Candidate Did Wisconsin Voters Pick in 2016 and 2020?

Wisconsin emerged as a closely divided state in recent elections, flipping between the two major parties. Democrats are powered by large margins in Milwaukee and Madison, but Republicans have gained ground with rural voters across the state.

In 2016, the state voted for Trump by 0.7 points; it was the first time Wisconsin had voted Republican since 1984. Four years later, President Joe Biden flipped it back, carrying the state by 0.63 points.

Baldwin was last up for election in 2018, when she beat back a challenge from Republican Leah Vukmir by about 11 points.

Republican Ron Johnson currently holds the other Wisconsin Senate seat, last winning reelection in 2022, when he defeated a challenge from former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes by a single percentage point. That same year, Democratic Governor Tony Evers won reelection by 3.4 points.

What Were the Polling Averages in Wisconsin?

Polls long showed Baldwin with a slight lead over Hovde, although her lead had narrowed as Election Day inched closer. On Tuesday, aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed Baldwin with a 2.2 percent lead in their average of recent polls. One month earlier, on October 5, Baldwin held an average lead of 5 percentage points, according to the aggregate.

RealClearPolitics showed Baldwin with a similar 1.8 point lead in its Election Day polling average.

Forecasters believed both candidates had roughly equal chances of winning. The Cook Political Report classified Wisconsin’s Senate race as a toss-up, a decision made in the weeks prior to Election Day, as Baldwin was viewed as a slight favorite through mid-October.

Abortion, Economy Among Biggest Issues in Wisconsin

Reproductive rights emerged as a key issue for voters in Wisconsin and other battlegrounds after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade in 2022.

Baldwin touted her support for abortion on the campaign and has backed legislation that would protect reproductive rights nationwide. Hovde, meanwhile, has said Wisconsin voters should have a chance to decide on abortion law through a referendum. Hovde previously described himself as “100 percent pro-life” in 2012, reported the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The economy and inflation were also key issues for voters, as the last four years have seen high rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic, though that has now cooled, resulting in interest rate cuts over the past few months.

Social Security has been of particular interest. Baldwin on Sunday described herself as the only candidate who would not cut the program, while Hovde has accused her of misrepresenting his position on the matter. He has denied that he wants to make large cuts and has said he only wants to raise the retirement age for younger Americans, rather than those already close to it.