Who Will Win the Election? Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump Polls Five Days Out
October 31, 2024
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The 2024 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appears closer than ever as the race enters its final week.
Pollsters and forecasters are saying that Trump has the slight edge over the Democratic candidate, but that it could still go either way.
Trump’s national average numbers have improved slightly against Harris since last week, although most prominent aggregators still show the vice president ahead overall. The battle between Harris and Trump in the seven key swing states that could ultimately decide the election remains a toss-up, with the candidates either virtually tied or only marginally ahead in various polls.
Newsweek has contacted both campaign teams for comment via email.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are still tied in the polls with one week of the election left. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are still tied in the polls with one week of the election left. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
Veteran pollster Nate Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight and now uses a similar forecasting model for his Silver Bulletin blog, recently wrote in The New York Times that labeling the race a 50-50 toss-up is the “only responsible forecast.” Silver added that his “gut” feeling suggests Trump will win the Electoral College count.
“However, I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut—including mine,” Silver wrote. “Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. You should remain open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would hinge on winning the three blue-wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient route to 270 Electoral College votes would involve winning Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
National Averages
Harris holds a national average lead over Trump of just over 1.4 points (48.1 percent to 46.7 percent), according to FiveThirtyEight. This is a slight decline from the 1.7-point lead she had on October 22, when two weeks remained in the election.
The polling aggregator indicates that Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning the race this November, but emphasizes that it remains essentially a toss-up.
“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at FiveThirtyEight recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” wrote FiveThirthyEight’s G. Elliott Morris. “All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each.”
Silver’s model gives Harris a national average poll lead over Trump of 1.1 points (48.6 percent to 47.5 percent). Trump’s numbers have improved by 0.5 point compared to last week.
On October 26, RealClearPolitics reported that Trump had surpassed Harris in its national average for the first time since the vice president became the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee. Currently, Trump is ahead of Harris by 0.4 points, 48.4 percent to Harris’ 48 percent.
Harris maintains a 0.6-point national lead over Trump (48.3 percent to 47.7 percent), according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling aggregation. This is down from the 1-point lead the vice president held last week.
Swing States
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris and Trump are incredibly close in four of seven battleground states. In Nevada, Harris leads by 0.1 points (47.6 to 47.5), in Wisconsin she leads by 0.3 points (48.0 to 47.7), and in Michigan, she leads by 0.7 points (48 to 47.2). Trump is ahead by 0.4 points in Pennsylvania (48 to 47.6).
Trump enjoys larger leads in North Carolina (plus 1.1 points), Georgia (1.8 points), and Arizona (2.2 points).
Silver Bulletin indicates that Harris is ahead in Nevada (0.1 points), Michigan (0.9 points) and Wisconsin (0.3 points). Trump is leading Harris in Pennsylvania (0.4 points), North Carolina (1.1 points), Georgia (1.9 points), and Arizona (2.3 points).
RealClearPolitics shows Trump ahead of Harris in all swing states except Michigan, where Harris leads by 0.5 points.
The former president leads in Arizona (plus 2.5 points), Georgia (2.4 points), Nevada (0.5 points), North Carolina (1 points), Pennsylvania (0.5 points), and Wisconsin (0.6 point).
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