Why Are Autism Rates Increasing? What Five Experts Say

Researchers tell Newsweek that new federal data showing a higher prevalence of autism is concerning, but added that the causes and symptoms are more complex than numbers.

Why It Matters

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. held a press conference on Wednesday in Washington D.C. to discuss newly released data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), showing autism prevalence across the United States increasing from 1 in 36 children to 1 in 31.

Kennedy, joined by longtime autism researcher and educator Walter Zahorodny of Rutgers University, has referred to the uptick in cases as an “epidemic running rampant.”

What To Know

The new data, documented via surveys of children born in 2014 and conducted in 2022 across 16 U.S. sites, show an autism prevalence 4.8 times higher than in a similar survey released 22 years ago, when prevalence was 1 in 150 children.

Juergen Hahn serves on the Autism Research Institute’s Scientific Advisory Board and is professor and department head of biomedical engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. The new data, to him, is unsurprising and indicative of years of trends.

“There is an uptick in cases,’ Hahn told Newsweek. “It doesn’t matter if you take the CDC report; we use the medical claims data from the insurance company in our own work.

“There was an uptick over the years where we basically ran the study. You find this literally doesn’t matter which country you look at or which timeframe; the numbers steadily go up.”

When asked what the increases are attributed to, Hahn called it the “million-dollar question.”

“We do know the numbers go up,” he said. “We don’t exactly know why the numbers go up. Like, [one study] for example, if there are more complications during pregnancy then the risk that the child has goes up, but it doesn’t cost to the degree that it would explain anything.

“It’s a very complicated problem. I don’t think there’s one smoking gun.”

Roma Vasa, director of psychiatric services with the Center for Autism Services, Science and Innovation at the Kennedy Krieger Institute, told Newsweek the prevalence report is important because it helps researchers understand trends in autism identification.

“This increased rate is driven by a few factors including improved awareness of autism amongst clinicians, parents, educators and other professionals; improved access to screening and evaluation; and expanded diagnostic criteria for autism,” Vasa said.

“What this means is that we are getting better at diagnosing autism, which means that we need to focus on making sure that children with autism and their families have access to necessary resources and supports to help them thrive.”

The sentiment was shared by Nigel Newbutt, assistant professor of advanced learning technologies at the University of Florida, who said that we as a society understand and know so much more than we ever have.

Other factors are at play, but “gatekeepers” including general practitioners, educations, and parents can spot potential early signs of autism—all helping to lead to earlier diagnoses.

“Diagnosis is lagging behind the need, and many people in the USA and across the world, struggle to get a diagnosis when they need it,” Newbutt told Newsweek. “This is problematic, as it can mean when people are diagnosed, they have already lost out on the accommodations they need at school or work, and other forms of support (i.e. therapy).

“But more importantly, and regardless of diagnosis rates or vaccine skepticism, we need to build greater understanding, provide better services, and support more inclusive and respectful environments to allow autistic groups to thrive. This means moving away from the ‘why there are so many autistic people’ and towards building inclusive education systems and neuro-inclusive workplaces.”

Amy Gravino, an autism sexuality advocate and relationship coach in the Center for Adult Autism Services at Rutgers University, told Newsweek that the data and the way it’s captured—involving a certain subset of children at a specific age range—doesn’t always match traditional criteria for identifying cases.

That includes misdiagnoses and underdiagnoses of many women and girls, as well as many people of color, said Gravino, who was diagnosed herself at age 11.

“I don’t think it gives us the fullest picture of autism that we could have,” she said. “It’s a great statistic. You have to create this idea of panic, that there must be some kind of autism epidemic, but I don’t know how you can call something an epidemic when we’re talking about people who’ve always existed.

“We’ve always been here, even if we haven’t been counted in the CDC prevalence rate throughout history. … I would just love to see a fuller kind of picture of what autism actually is outside of one narrow presentation that applies to one narrow specific group of individuals.”

While the experts Newsweek spoke with had mixed feelings on claims, that more awareness, screenings and evaluations have contributed to elevated rates, Gravino said the data can “bog down” the bigger picture.

“We forget that behind every data point is a human being; behind every statistic is a family, is a life, is someone trying to exist in this world that isn’t built for people who are like us, people who are autistic, who are different,” she said.

“We get into this murky area of competing priorities, I think, and unfortunately that creates a lot of problems because it gets stuck on the wall. … The work itself is what matters most—the work and using the data ultimately to make those changes structurally and institutionally again to help all individuals on the spectrum.”

What People Are Saying

RFK Jr. on April 16: “We know it’s environmental exposure. It has to be. Genes do not cause epidemics. They can provide a vulnerability, but you need an environmental toxin.”

Carter Wrenn, longtime Republican strategist, previously told Newsweek: “Polls are showing Musk’s popularity is upside down. That could definitely be a problem—especially with swing voters, independents, and ticket-splitters. Musk, personally, carries some negative baggage that could hurt.”

What Happens Next

Kennedy has pledged to devote government resources alongside world-class scientists to help find answers to the “epidemic” as soon as this September.