Why Marco Rubio Could Be Cuba’s Worst Nightmare

Marco Rubio is poised to support Donald Trump in another tough standoff between the U.S. and Cuba in the years ahead, an expert told Newsweek.

The president-elect nominated Rubio to be his secretary of state this week, and he would become the first Cuban American to hold the position if he is approved by the Senate in the coming weeks. But, far from bolstering connections, many fear his appointment could spell further complications in the fraught relations between the two nations.

The Florida GOP senator, who was born in Miami to Cuban parents who emigrated to the U.S. in 1956, has been one of the most-vocal opponents of the Havana government in Congress, and is regularly demonized as Cuba’s enemy in the nation’s state media.

Newsweek has reached out to Rubio and Trump’s transition team for comment.

Daniel Pedreira, an adjunct professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University, told Newsweek that Rubio will likely “continue his vocal criticism of the Cuban regime and will support Cuba’s democratic opposition movement.”

“President-elect Trump appears poised for another face-off with the Cuban government, and a potential Secretary of State Rubio would be his chief diplomat in achieving that goal. It is likely that Secretary Rubio will tow a firm line with the Cuban regime while providing support for Cuba’s internal opposition and civil society,” Pedreira said.

“He will also pressure the second Trump administration to maintain a tough stance against the regime in Havana.”

Anticipating the Cuban government’s reaction, Pedreira added: “The Cuban government will respond negatively to Rubio’s appointment, as he has always been an enemy of the Cuban regime. However, the appointment will be welcomed by Cuban opposition leaders, both in the Island and abroad.”

Pedreira also said that Trump’s policy regarding Cuba will likely not differ greatly from his first presidency; it will be characterized by “increased isolation of the Cuban regime, sanctions against regime officials, and calls for the release of political prisoners.”

Pedreira added that there will be changes to immigration, with a clampdown on migrants entering the U.S.

“There may also be a review of immigration policies after several officials of the Cuban regime have been identified as entering and living in the U.S. in recent months and years,” he said. “It is possible that this administration will renegotiate migration accords with Cuban officials to seek ways to curb the high number of Cubans coming to the U.S.”

William LeoGrande, a professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek that there is “virtually no prospect” of U.S.-Cuba relations improving with Trump in the White House again.

“U.S.-Cuban relations have been very bad ever since Donald Trump’s first term in office when he imposed the toughest sanctions on Cuba of any president since Kennedy. Biden did little to relax those sanctions,” LeoGrande said.

“If anything, the new administration may very well intensify sanctions in hopes of collapsing the Cuban government. The problem with this strategy is that it is not likely to cause collapse, but is certain to increase the flow of Cuban migrants to the United States. When the Cuban economy is in crisis, Cubans don’t rise up. They leave.”

Rubio, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been highly critical of the Cuban government in Congress. He spoke out in 2014 after former President Barack Obama restored diplomatic relations with Cuba, vowing to do “everything possible” to block the policies.

“The president’s decision to reward the Castro regime and begin the path toward the normalization of relations with Cuba is inexplicable,” Rubio said. “Cuba, like Syria, Iran, and Sudan, remains a state sponsor of terrorism … Appeasing the Castro brothers will only cause other tyrants from Caracas to Tehran to Pyongyang to see that they can take advantage of President Obama’s naïveté during his final two years in office. As a result, America will be less safe.”

Trump announced Rubio as his nominee for secretary of state on Wednesday, describing him as a “highly respected leader, and a very powerful voice for freedom.”

“He will be a strong advocate for our nation, a true friend to our allies, and a fearless warrior who will never back down to our adversaries,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In response, Rubio wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “Leading the U.S. Department of State is a tremendous responsibility and I am honored by the trust President Trump has placed in me. As Secretary of State, I will work every day to carry out his foreign policy agenda.

“Under the leadership of President Trump we will deliver peace through strength and always put the interests of Americans and America above all else. I look forward to earning the support of my colleagues in the U.S. Senate so the President has his national security and foreign policy team in place when he takes office on January 20.”