Germany’s push to make its army the strongest in Europe is essential given the threat posed by Russia to the continent where a conflict with Moscow would differ greatly to the attritional warfare currently seen in Ukraine, a military adviser has told Newsweek.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had pledged in May to transform the Bundeswehr (the nation’s armed forces), and along with proposed legislation to boost troop numbers revealed last week, Berlin has shown its intentions to boost its military in the coming years.
Nicholas Drummond, a U.K.-based defense strategist, told Newsweek that a bigger German army could transform the security landscape of Europe, whose leaders have warned that Moscow could expand its belligerence beyond Ukraine by the end of the decade.
“It’s very easy to draw the wrong conclusions from the war in Ukraine,” Drummond said, referring to slow progress on the front line, adding that a future conflict with a reconstituted Russian armed forces would be “fast paced” with a greater use of air power in the opening weeks.
Europe’s Warning About Russia
The European Union’s Defense Readiness 2030 plan to prepare for possible conflict by the end of the decade and proposals by German lawmakers to boost the country’s military spending and troop numbers, highlight the concern over the threat posed by Russia. Polish military chief Wiesław Kukuła is the latest top official to describe this threat, saying that Russia has already started to prepare for war with Poland, following Ukraine.
Drummond told Newsweek it seems likely a peace deal could be agreed in Ukraine in the next 12 to 18 months because neither side can continue, given the diminishment of their capabilities on the front line. But this will raise the question of how long it will take for Russia to rearm and when it might attack again.
While some analysts have said it could take up to 10 years, Drummond believes it could happen more quickly if China, North Korea and Iran decided to help Moscow. “China is producing armored vehicles and missiles at a prodigious rate,” he said.
While Drummond noted how the war in Ukraine has been described as “World War I with drones,” meaning a static war of attrition often involving trenches, “we would have a very fast-paced maneuverable against Russia if they did attack a NATO country.”
“So we would see a much greater use of air power and we would see a much greater use of force in the initial opening weeks of any conflict.”
Germany’s Future Defense Role
Germany is expected to spend 153 billion euros ($178 billion) a year on defense by 2029, or 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product—which would make it the world’s third highest spender, behind the U.S. and China.
Drummond expected the German budget to focus on investment in areas including artillery, munitions and cruise missiles “on a massive scale but I also expect it to invest in air defense.”
This could see Germany’s armed forces take on the main mantle of security against future threats to NATO on the continent, especially regarding Russia, following its war on Ukraine.
“A lot of European countries will rely on Germany because Germany has deep pockets and a very large economy,” Drummond said. While NATO would fight as a coalition with Anglo-German divisions and multinational forces, “Germany in itself would deliver a significant amount of mass.”
Under plans by German lawmakers, the Bundeswehr’s ranks could swell to 260,000 over the next decade from 182,000 troops now. German lawmakers will next month weigh up legislation in which all 18-year-old men must answer questions about whether they can serve from 2026 and from the following year, undergo medical screening to assess their fitness. For women over 18 these questionnaires will be voluntary.
Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Newsweek the German government is pursuing three areas to satisfy the NATO capability targets and implement Germany’s allotment of NATO’s defense plans.
These are recruitment and retention of personnel, procurement, and infrastructure. “What Germany decides to do is very closely tied to what the NATO defense plans and capability targets,” Loss said.
“By and large, Germans support this kind of growth trajectory for the armed forces. They also support very much Germany’s leading role in the EU and NATO,” said Loss. “It would not be Germany leading Europe, but a collective of important countries, including Germany, going ahead to bring others along.”
