You’re Fired! Why Billionaires Backing Trump Should Think Twice | Opinion

After President Donald Trump’s reelection, business elites wasted no time racing to curry his favor. Ranging from the major tech moguls like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and OpenAI’s Sam Altman to Salesforce CEO and Time magazine owner Marc Benioff, the super-rich have lined up to kiss Trump’s ring. The decision to cozy up to Trump will very likely provide big opportunities for big business. But U.S. corporate leaders would do well to recognize the risks that arise from simply falling in line. Trump’s expansion of executive powers and a likely rise in corruption under his watch will give him greater latitude to target those who cross him.

Political science research shows that the election of personalist leaders—or those leaders that wield disproportionate power over the parties that back them, as is now the case for Trump—leads to a rise in levels of corruption. The experience of personalist politics in countries like Victor Orban’s Hungary and Alberto Fujimori’s Peru illustrate the point. The more personalized power becomes in democracies, the more the leader and their close friends and family—and the loyal business elite—benefit.

Trump has already set the stage for corruption to rise. Without adhering to the law requiring notice to Congress, he fired 17 inspectors general, the very individuals charged with preventing abuses of power. Despite rules intended to prevent public officials from personally profiting from government policies, Trump has worked to insulate his business ventures and those of his allies from government oversight. His administration has even rolled back anti-corruption measures that prevent foreign governments from bribing U.S. government officials.

Trump’s new right-hand man, billionaire Elon Musk, underscores just how much big business stands to profit. Musk contributed nearly $300 million to elect Trump, but he and his businesses are primed to reap extraordinary profits from his actions as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk’s companies secured $13 billion in government contracts over the past five years, and many officials fired by DOGE were leading investigations, enforcement matters, or lawsuits pending against Musk’s companies.

Absent robust checks on Trump’s power, there will be myriad ways that the president’s policy proposals could further enrich loyal big business. Trump frequently touts tariffs, for example, as one of his favorite political tools. Taxes on trade, however, create opportunities for illicit profits, as Trump can award the most loyal with tariff waivers. Private payments to secure tariff waivers enrich whatever entity controls their distribution, as well as those businesses gaining cheaper access to U.S. markets. The Marcos family made millions this way during his dictatorship in the Philippines.

But lining up behind Trump is a dangerous move. For the strongman leader, corruption is a strategic tool. A corrupt and institutionally weak political system gives leaders great discretion to go after people who disagree with them, or even if the outwardly loyal and compliant appear too powerful.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping purged his perceived rivals, he did so under the pretext of corruption. The business elite were not immune. Xiao Jianhua, a once trusted financier to China’s ruling elite, was disappeared into Chinese custody and his empire dismantled. And, most prominently, when tech tycoon Jack Ma criticized government policy, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) threw a $2.8 billion antitrust fine at him, blocked the $37 billion IPO of Ant where he was the controlling shareholder, and forced him to “disappear” from public view for a while. Likewise, once in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly dispensed with the strongest of the oligarchs who had bankrolled his first election campaign.

While these stories sound like the stuff of the most repressive regimes, democracies have not been immune. A little known but relevant example from Benin serves as a cautionary tale for the business elite seeking Trump’s attention.

Benin’s democratically elected leader, Patrice Talon, was one of the wealthiest individuals in Africa. After entering office in 2016, Talon put the central affairs of the state in the hands of an informal cabinet, initially led by Olivier Boko, a wealthy businessman considered to be Talon’s right-hand man despite not having any official position in government. Talon and his inner circle used this control over the state to enrich themselves, turning the country into “a company in the hands of Talon and his very close clique.”

Sound familiar? And, yet, just this year, Boko was sentenced to prison for allegedly plotting a coup, not long after indicating his own potential run to succeed the term-limited Talon.

The closer big business gets to the leader, the riskier the endeavor. History has shown that the biggest threat to any strongman leader comes from members of their inner circle, increasing the paranoia of these leaders. Should the leader perceive any individual to be too powerful or disloyal, they are out. Even seemingly small policy disagreements can trigger a purge. Right now, Musk’s interests align with Trump’s. But what happens when they don’t? Don’t bet on the guy with the most money but on the guy who controls the courts and the guns.

The business elites vying to get into the Trump 2.0 court should therefore think twice. A deal with the devil is just that.

Erica Frantz is an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University.

Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

Joseph Wright is a professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University.

They are the authors of, The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within.

The views expressed in this article are the writers’ own.