Atlanta Suburbs Defy a National Trend, Shifting Left

Atlanta’s suburbs defied national trends by swinging toward Vice President Kamala Harris in this year’s presidential election, even as President-elect Donald Trump flipped back the state he lost four years earlier.

Georgia was a key battleground in the race between Trump and Harris that ultimately backed Trump by about 2.2 percentage points with about 99 percent reporting, according to CNN. In Georgia, as in the other six battlegrounds he won, Trump made gains with most voter groups regardless of where they lived.

But there were still pockets of the U.S. that shifted toward Harris.

The suburbs of Atlanta saw some of the largest swings in her direction this year, though they were not enough to counter his modest gains in the city itself and larger shifts in the rural areas of the state toward Trump.

Henry County, which consists of Atlanta’s southern suburbs, trended left more than other suburban counties, with Harris beating President Biden’s 2020 margins by nearly 9 points. Rockdale County shifted more than 6 points to the left.

Fayette County, which Democrats hoped to flip, shifted nearly 4 points left, though Trump still won it by about 3 points.

Northern suburban counties saw more modest shifts. Cobb County voted only 0.27 points to the left compared with its 2020 vote, while Gwinnett County narrowly shifted to Trump by less than two points. Forsyth County moved 0.58 points leftward.

William Hatcher, chair and professor of social sciences at Augusta University, told Newsweek on Tuesday that education levels likely played a role in Harris’ improvement in the Atlanta suburbs.

“This may be due to these counties have higher proportions of individuals with college degrees, a group that Harris tended to win in many areas,” he said.

Harris won voters with a college degree by 13 percentage points, slightly stronger than Biden’s 12-point victory among the voter group four years earlier, according to CNN’s exit polls.

Democrats’ have been improving in Atlanta’s suburban counties for years, he said, noting that the 2020 election accelerated these trends. Bu these gains were “offset this election cycle with the Republicans gaining more support among groups such as Latinos and working-class Whites in rural and suburban areas,” according to Hatcher.

“As with everywhere and most voters, inflation and the economy mattered to this cycle. However, the Atlanta suburban voters may have been more inclined to vote based on the democracy message put forth by the Harris campaign and on the issue of abortion, with many in these areas being or leaning toward pro-choice,” he said.

Adrienne Jones, a professor of political science at Morehouse University in Atlanta, told Newsweek that these shifts are a continuation of gradual trends over the past decade.

Atlanta’s suburbs were “more red” 10 years ago but have grown more liberal as the city’s population spills over, and as some voters become more progressive. Even as the state went red this year, it still has “purple undertones,” and Harris’ performance in the suburbs could be a “warning” for Republicans in the future, she said.

“These are areas that are traditionally conservative and have had turnover in the residential population. As we saw in 2020 and 2022, there are bluer areas of those areas, of those more conservative strongholds due to people moving,” she said.

Nate Silver wrote in a post to X (formerly Twitter) that Atlanta’s suburbs were “defying pretty much everywhere else” with their blue shift.

“I think part of this is a) lots of people are leaving blue cities/states b) the South is cheap & has a lot of attractive qualities but c) liberal emigres don’t want to move somewhere they see as too red,” he theorized.

Even as Atlanta’s suburbs shifted toward the Democrats, Trump actually gained ground in the city itself. Fulton County, which encompasses 90 percent of the Atlanta, shifted more than two points toward Republicans, while Dekalb County moved more than three points to the GOP. Silver noted, however, that those shifts are “still less than the national ~6 point swing.”

“I think it’s a sign of Atlanta becoming a really important metro area, to the point where people will move even to the exurbs,” he added.

Trump also did particularly well in the more rural areas south of Atlanta.

Rural Webster County saw a double-digit swing toward Trump from 2020, backing him by 19 points this year. Four years earlier, Trump carried the county by less than eight percentage points. He also flipped Baldwin County, viewed as a bellwether for Harris’ rural support.

Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

Georgia itself only shifted about two points to the right, a smaller shift than most states saw on Tuesday. States like New York and New Jersey saw the largest shifts toward Trump, with New York moving rightward by double digits.

Georgia is likely to be a key state in the 2026 midterms, when Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff will be running for reelection . He was first elected in 2020, when Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1992. Strong margins in Atlanta’s suburbs will be critical for his victory, and Democrats are already hopeful for a “blue wave” similar to 2018.

Other Sun Belt suburbs did not see the same movement as those around Atlanta.

In North Carolina’s Mecklenburg County, which consists of Charlotte and its suburbs, the vote shifted about two points to the right. Carbarrus County, another part of the Charlotte suburbs, shifted less than two points left. Charleston County, South Carolina shifted more than seven points to Trump.