Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Chances of Being 2028 Nominee Double in One Week

The popularity of U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York is intensifying not just in her home state but nationally, lifting her long-term stock as the Democratic Party’s potential presidential nominee in 2028.

Why It Matters

Ocasio-Cortez, a fourth-term congresswoman, has become one of the most recognizable faces of her party since defeating 20-year Democratic lawmaker Joe Crowley in 2019. She’s become synonymous with progressive ideals and policies, such as the “Green New Deal,” that have been maligned by Republicans over the years.

She and progressive independent U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont have visited multiple states as part of their “Fighting Oligarchy Tour,” drawing large crowds in blue states like California and red states like Idaho.

What To Know

Online betting markets are showing signs that Ocasio-Cortez, 35, could be a formidable candidate in 2028, even with the next election more than three years away.

Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exchange that trades on the outcome of future events, showed her stock rising early on Thursday to 12 percent—tying her with California Governor Gavin Newsom, and putting her slightly ahead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (10 percent).

The exchange, in an X post, said that Ocasio-Cortez’s odds have doubled in the past week alone.

Newsweek reached out to Kalshi for comment.

AOC — Democratic U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York speaks to a full auditorium as part of the “Fighting Oligarchy Tour” on April 14 in Nampa, Idaho.

Natalie Behring/Getty Images

The New York lawmaker has also seen increases in her popularity, or favorability, according to other polls.

A new survey of 802 New York state voters conducted by the Siena College Research Institute from April 14 to April 16 shows that 21 percent of statewide Republicans view her in a “favorable” light. The figure marks a substantial jump from the 6 percent of New York Republicans viewing her in that fashion after she was first elected.

In that same survey, she had higher overall approval ratings than Democratic counterparts in her state, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, New York Governor Kathy Hochul and U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres.

Denny Salas, former Washington, D.C., consultant and field organizer during former President Barack Obama’s first term, told Newsweek that the adulation toward Ocasio-Cortez is meaningless at this juncture.

“There’s always room for loudmouths with no serious plans to improve the everyday lives of working-class Americans,” Salas said. “AOC is currently running the same exact and tired playbook of ‘Trump-Hate’ some Democrats have been running since 2016. It may win an election here and there, but it is unserious.”

He says the party has chosen rhetoric over substance, which has led to the American public souring on Democrats—in some cases in historic lows, polling-wise.

“Americans have seen this movie before, running on anger and hyperbolic sensationalism,” he added. “Americans want solutions to fix our disastrous primary and educational systems, presently steering America toward an uncompetitive future. They desire a sustainable economic future that enables them to achieve the American Dream, and currently, the Democrats are not offering any of that.”

Patricia Crouse, political scientist in residence at the University of New Haven, agrees.

She told Newsweek that Ocasio-Cortez is not a viable presidential candidate but does have a future in party leadership as a Senate candidate or even a vice presidential pick.

“I think people see her as the face of the Democratic Party right now because she seems to be the only one (along with Sanders) willing to stand up for the party and stand against Trump,” Crouse said. “But many within the party, both members and voters, view her as too progressive or even extreme left.”

What People Are Saying

Ocasio-Cortez, on the Latino USA podcast: “I think structurally, overall, the Democratic Party has this confused message. We’re supposed to be a party of the working class, and I think working-class people have not been seeing government work for them, despite a lot of the things that the Biden administration did do.”

“I have a weird relationship with the Democratic Party. I don’t believe in a two-party system, but I also understand the Democratic Party is a coalition and if we want the party to change, the balance of the coalition has to change. But right now, you open the hood on the Democratic Party, what you have is, I think, a bit of a power struggle over the last couple of years.”