What Florida Early Voting Shows About Harris vs Trump in the State

Early in-person voting for the presidential election started in Florida this week, and figures show more people supporting Donald Trump than Kamala Harris.

Votes in the Sunshine State have been able to cast their ballots in person from Monday, October 21, for November’s presidential election.

Data provided by the Florida Secretary of State website shows that as of Tuesday morning ET, more than 202,000 early in-person voters had voted Republican in Florida, compared to over 108,000 who had voted Democrat.

The deadline to request a mail-in ballot in Florida also expires this week, on Thursday, October 24. More than 1.3 million mail-in ballots have already been returned in Florida: 555,000 voting for Harris and 477,000 voting for Trump.

With the election still two weeks away, Trump already has a lead over Harris in the Sunshine State, of 679,814 votes to Harris’ 664,282.

While this figure will change between now and Election Day—with more than 10 million people voting in Florida in 2020—the figures combined with polling suggest Trump is on course to win the state for the third time.

Newsweek has contacted Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.

Mail-in voting historically favors democratic candidates in general elections, while Republican supporters tend to vote more on the day. Trump could therefor increase his lead further in Florida on November 5, when the majority of his support votes.

Democrats have previously suggested Florida could be in play for Harris in November, with some polls suggesting the race is close. Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison said in September the party thinks it “has a shot” in Florida, and that people may be “surprised on election night about what happens in the state.”

Florida was once a pivotal swing state, but it is considered to have become more Republican in recent years, following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections and Governor Ron DeSantis’ cruising to reelection in the 2022 midterms.

Polling suggests Trump is on course to win Florida on November 5.

A survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) of 977 likely Florida voters revealed Trump with a 10-point lead over Harris (53 percent to 43). The survey was carried out between October 7-18, and the results have a margin of error or plus or minus 3.49 percentage points.

Election forecaster 538 currently has Trump with a 5.7-point average lead over Harris in Florida.

The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill gives Trump an 81 percent chance of winning Florida in November.

Trump spokesman Steven Cheung previously told Newsweek: “Anyone who thinks Kamala Harris has a chance in Florida is clearly suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome and needs to get checked out.”