Why a US Retreat From Africa Would Be a Win for Xi and Putin

A U.S. diplomatic pullback from Africa would open the door for other countries—chief among them China—to expand their influence, analysts have told Newsweek.

The State Department has become the latest target in a wave of sweeping government cuts, following deep reductions in the Departments of Health and Human Services and Education.

State Department Faces Deep Cuts

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday announced an overhaul of the department, pledging to “drain the bloated, bureaucratic swamp, empowering the Department from the ground up.”

The department will cut programs “misaligned with America’s core national interest” and shutter or consolidate offices and bureaus, he said.

Those closures and consolidations will total more than 100, according to an internal memo reviewed by the Associated Press and other agencies. The documents also mention plans to reduce staff by 15 percent and slash the overall budget by half.

Spokesperson Tammy Bruce declined to discuss specifics during the department’s news conference Tuesday.

A chart released by the department outlines its planned structure. While several human rights-related bureaus are slated for elimination, the Bureau of African Affairs remains.

That marks a shift from a draft Trump administration executive order reportedly obtained by multiple agencies last week, which drew scrutiny for proposing to dismantle the bureau and replace it with a special envoy office under the National Security Council.

Also listed for closure in the draft were nearly 30 embassies and consulates, many in Europe. Africa ranked second, with eight diplomatic missions potentially on the chopping block, according to CNN, which also viewed the purported draft document.

The new budget and major organizational changes require congressional approval, with fierce debate expected in the deeply polarized Senate and House.

“Every program, office, and policy at State must effectively advance U.S. foreign policy goals—not advance progressive ideology. Secretary Rubio’s plans to reorganize the department will do just that,” Republican U.S. Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement.

Critics Warn of Soft Power Erosion

The changes being planned follow the Trump’s move to dismantle federally funded media organizations, such as Voice of America, and USAID, in line with his “America first” doctrine.

The world’s largest government foreign aid agency, USAID saved millions of lives over the decades—particularly in Africa—through programs targeting crises such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal and child mortality.

Critics say the potential State Department cuts would deal another blow to Washington’s soft power.

“On its face, this new reorganization plan raises grave concerns that the United States will no longer have either the capacity or capability to exert U.S. global leadership, achieve critical national security objectives, stand up to our adversaries, save lives, and promote democratic values,” Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii, who also sits on the Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement.

Scaled-back diplomatic efforts in Africa would open up opportunities for the country’s adversaries to strengthen their influence at Washington’s expense, analysts say.

“It will encourage African states to diversify their international partnerships more quickly, Alex Vines, director of the Africa Program at Chatham House, told Newsweek.

“Washington will be seen as an increasingly unreliable and China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Gulf and European states will become the diplomatic focus for trade and investment and security partnerships.”

If that happens, it could complicate efforts to secure high-value deals as Trump eyes Africa’s vast mineral wealth.

China Positioned to Fill Growing US Void

Chinese companies are already far ahead in such operations.

As Africa’s largest trading partner, China has invested heavily in African infrastructure through Xi Jinping’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese companies are also heavily involved in mines and other resource projects across the continent.

“The potential rollback of diplomatic services will likely dovetail with the recent withdrawal of USAID and state-supported media in reducing the United States’s on-the-ground presence in Africa,” said Cobus van Staden, senior researcher with the South African Institute for International Affairs and co-host of the weekly China in Africa Podcast.

This will “open up space for outreach from other powers and strengthen China’s broader messaging to Africa and the Global South,” he told Newsweek.

He contrasted U.S. engagement with Africa to China’s approach, which is centered on development, regular diplomatic outreach, and an “emphasis on China’s unique role as the Africa’s largest trading partner.”

Sate Department spokesperson told Newsweek they were not able to provide additional information at this time.